A state economist forecasts that Utah will lose up to 19,000 jobs next year and reach an unemployment rate of up to 5.5 percent as it enters one of its worst economic downturns in decades.

“That would be the worst economic environment we’ve had since 1954. We’ve only had four times since 1950 where there’s fewer jobs in one year than there was the previous year,” Mark Knold, chief economist for the Department of Workforce Services, said in an audio podcast released with the state’s October employment report on Tuesday.

The report said Utah lost 2,200 jobs in October compared with the same month last year. That’s a decline of .2 percent.

It is the first time in 2008 Utah has experienced negative job growth.

Utah’s economy is no longer hurting just because of a slowdown in the housing and construction industries, Knold said. The slump has now expanded to manufacturing, financial activities, and professional and business services.

Still, the state’s unemployment rate remained steady in October at 3.5 percent, the same as in September. Last October, the state’s rate was 2.8 percent.

However, Knold said Utah’s unemployment rate is likely to rise.

“We do expect that to start speeding up in terms of its climbing,” Knold said. “By the time we kind of finish out 2009, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Utah’s unemployment rate up to 5.5 percent.”

Nationally, the unemployment rate is 6.5 percent.

Knold said Utah likely won’t surpass the national unemployment rate, but it’s not isolated from the national economy.

“Having this … almost like an immunity to what’s going on — no, we’re not going to be seeing that as we move forward,” he said. “We shine brightly in the good economic environments … but this one’s too big. We’re going to have an economy that’s being dragged down by it all.”